Rainfall patterns and extreme events in Curitiba (Paraná)

challenges in the face of climate change scenarios.

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events and their impacts have been intensifying due to climate change scenarios. In Curitiba, these processes are recurrent and have shaped the city's evolution. This study emphasizes an analysis of usual and extreme rainfall patterns, as well as future climate scenarios for rainfall in the city. Daily precipitation data, extreme event indices, and CMIP6 scenarios were used for this purpose. The results suggest intensification of positive and negative rainfall extremes, through increases in annual precipitation indices, P99, Rx1day, Rx5day, CDD, and SDII, and a reduction in the number of rainy days from 1979 to 2023. Understanding these dynamics enables improvements in climate risk management in urban environments.