Cidades do Nordeste : aplicação de factor analysis no estudo de cidades nordestinas

Resumo

I. The places. Cities which in 1964 totaled more than 27.500 inhabitants, an inferior approximation to the limit of 30.000, were defined as the most important. Cities of metropolitan areas were taken in group; cities with great proximity and complementary, as Ilheus and Itabuna had their figures taken together.

II. The variables were 19:1-urban population; 2-growth of urban population from 1940 to 1964; 3-growth of urban population from 1950 to 1964; 4-population of the area of influence in 1964; 5-growth population of the area of influence from 1940 to 1964; 6-percentage of personnel employed in industries, in 1965: 7-value of industrial sales in 1965; 8-evolution of the values of industrial sales from 1940 to 1965; 9-increase of the number of industrial establishments between 1940 and 1965; 10-number of industrial establishments which value of sales exceeded 500.000 cruzeiros in 1965 (250.000 dollars by this time); 11-value of sales of the so called "dynamic" industries, in 1965; 12-value of cleared checks in 1964; 13-inscription in high schools in 1964; 14-inscription in Universities in 1964; 15-number of doctors per 10.000 persons; 16-Bank deposits in 1965; 17-applications of Banks in 1965; 18-taxes collected, per capita in 1965, and 19-value of the "Circulation and Merchandise Tax", per capita, in 1964.

III. Computing. The operations were made at Nottingham University, by kindness of Professor John Cole, in "Main Components" method. It resulted that 6 factors were responsible for 91,76% of the explanation, the first, one with 49,53%, the second with 17,24% the third with 10,89% and the others with less.

IV. Structure of Factors. The first factor shows the connections between size of urban population, concentration of different economical activities and population dimension of the area of influence. It was called "factor of size of population and economical activity".

The second factor include doctors and students and reflects in a certain way the cultural level of cities. It is the “cultural factor”.

The third factor brings together variables of urban population growth and evolution of industrial sales. It is the factor of "urban growth". The behavior of the cities and of their areas of influence is often distinct as regards growth; variable 5 is not associated to this factor. Also variable 9, increase of industrial establishments, is absent, which means that increase of industrial production occurs more through big industries, than the multiplication of small ones. Thus, while Salvador grew 55% in establishments from 1940 to 1965, its production increased 269%; at the same time Maceió increased in 139% the number of establishments but its production value in only 51%.

Variable 5, growth population of the area of influence, forms the 4th factor. Some times the growth of a city is due to the loss of population of its region; other times, city and region grow parallel, but even in this case the rhythm can be changed. For instance, the urban population growth for Jequié between 1940 and 1964 was 343%, but only 23% for its area of influence. The rates were 99% and 58% for Fortaleza, or 134% and 102% for São Luis.

V. Scores of geographical places. Recife is by far the city of highest score in the size factor. Salvador was closer to Fortaleza than to Recife. But the three are very far from a second grouping of cities which all are, with the expectation of Campina Grande, state capitals. Teresina is the only state capital which does not take part of this grouping and is also the only one in continental geographical position. The referred second group of cities is separated by a hiatus from a third group formed with regional centers of interior hierarchy. Meanwhile one can well observe that the second group, formed by the coast state capitals and Campina Grande, is closer to the third group of cities than to the first, formed by metropolises.

The second factor shows again three different groups, but in smaller distances. The influence of cultural traditions have to be taken in account, as the fact that the growth of cities by people migrating from the interior can lower the per capita indices. It can be observed that the distances separating the three metropolises between them are not so big, contrary to the first factor. Besides this, it is Salvador that is in first place, owing to its tradition of Northeastern cultural center. We have to add that the metropolitan periphery is included, ampler in Recife, which economical process has not yet given, as a result, a higher promotion of cultural standard in relation to the other regional metropolis. The second group of centers is made by the same localities as the ones that formed the second group of the first factor. Now they are closer to the metropolises than to the third group, this being constituted by regional centers of minor hierarchy. This situation is related to the fact that college education was firstly taught in the state capitals and only later reached the regional centers. Therefore as regards Campina Grande and João Pessoa in the State of Paraíba, if the first is more important in economy, the second is still more on the second factor. The founding of Faculty in Campina Grande is very recent.

Third factor shows other aspects of Northeastern panorama. The former factors indicated the weight of historical inheritance of urban development along the coast, whilst the third introduces the process of building highways in the interior of the continent. one can verify the superiority of the cities along the Rio-Bahia road, main highway axis, which began functioning in 1950. Feira de Santana has a privileged position at a, short distance from Salvador and at the junction of the road to Fortaleza and Recife with the Rio-Bahia road. It was In fact the city of greatest growth of the Northeast. It is interesting to note that Feira de Santa is one of the first Northeastern cities to set up a Plan for local integrated development, published in 1968.

Should the Northeast go through a phase of diffusion of development, it will be normal that the small cities grow quicker than the metropolises, as starting from inferior levels they could reach bigger percentage. This seems to occur, if one takes each state separately: Sobral and Crato-Juazeiro have a higher score than Fortaleza in Ceará; Caruaru and Garanhuns surpass Recife in Pernambuco; Patos surpasses Campina Grande or João Pessoa in Paraiba. Meanwhile, when interstate comparisons are made, it is verified that Fortaleza, which is a metropolis, surpasses in growth Campina Grande or São Luis that are cities of smaller size; or that Salvador, metropolis, surpasses the smaller cities of João Pessoa or Maceió. The biggest polarization of the regional metropolis€s opposite the state capitals was a process at the time.

But Teresina which was the state capital of lowest score In the former factors, now appears In the first place, even of the metropolis. The factor of growth of cities shows the prominence of some small-medium size cities of the sub-system in analysis and the superior position of the metropolis of Salvador and Fortaleza in face of most of the state capitals, with the exception of Natal and Teresina that outstand. Recife is discrete in this factor.

In the meantime it is noted that this refers to the period that ends in 1965 and that some modifications must have occurred posteriorly. With the accentuation of the process of industrialization of the Northeast in recent years, a renewed process of concentration was made in Recife and Salvador. At the same time the institution of state planning, trying to attract industries, favored the medium-big cities, state capitals. It looks as facing the aforesaid situation - the medium-big cities growing less than the regional metropolis and the small- medium cities- the state initiative, with SUDENE support, would help its capitals by promoting its industrialization. This can be seen for example in Natal.

The scores given In factor 4 show the influence of expansion of settlement in the called "Middle North", Maranhão and Piauí, in one extreme, or cities whose growth of area of influence was so small that in reality ls comparable to an evacuation, at the opposite extreme.

VI. Similarities and a classification of cities. Through a coefficient of similarity, the clustering of the cities may be considered as a classification where one can distinguish:

1. The Northeastern Metropolis represented by Recife. It is undoubtedly a great center of growth due to SUDENE's policy of fiscal incentives. In the meanwhile, Recife is not much different in relation to the general pattern of the great Northeastern cities concerning the cultural pattern of its population. The medium income in Recife in March 1967 was estimated in 86,80 cruzeiros, in comparison with 80,40 in Campina Grande in June 1967, for instance.

2. Two regional metropolises are constituted by Salvador and Fortaleza. It also concerns growth Poles in the Northeast where the new industrial enterprises are being put-up. Their influence is present in smaller regions than those of Recife, and also in many stretches of their regions some influences of Recife appear. The distance between Salvador and Fortaleza is big in favor of the first city. Salvador is a traditional metropolis with a tendency to become an important industrial center and a tourist place. Fortaleza is increasing in the regionalization process, becoming from a relatively unimportant center, a city with centrality for extensive area of influence which includes parts on the "Middle North."

3. Big cities, in the Northeastern scale are located on the coast, grouping all the state capitals and Campina Grande. Teresina although with a population superior to Campina Grande or Aracaju does not appear in this group due to the lower level of its activities.

Each one of these cities have, in a more or less accentuated form, an immediate region that it represents, where population and activities are bigger than in the further interior areas of the Northeast. Each state has a more or less organized part around its big city and which is the "façade" which characterizes it as an independent regional unit. The interior forms a common space with the one of the other states, the "sertão".

4. Medium and small cities distributed along the coast and the interior are grouped as follows: 4.1 Cities of the upland of Bahía and Minas Gerais are cities which expansion, specially after 1950 is related to the construction of the Rio-Bahia road. We can distinguish two subgroups: Montes Claros and Feira de Santana are centers of major dynamism and more developed industrial activity; Vitória da Conquista and Jequié have less economical significance, mainly Jequié, they had, before anything else, the "bulge" of population. A recent development of cattle in the south of the upland of Bahia, reflects over Conquista.

4.2 Cities of the coast are Moçoró and Ilhéus-Itabuna. They are connected to the output of valued regional products, centers of traditional regional functions that are surrounded by homogeneous regions, one producing salt and the other cocoa. They represent a step in the hierarchy between the state capitals and the other Northeastern regional centers.

4.3 Cities on the Fortaleza-Teresina ·road are Teresina and Sobral. In this driection economical life is still not too dense. Teresina concentrates administrative activities and is slow in reaching economical dimension, once it is located in a vast rather uninhabited area, although at an important junction. In Teresina we find the roads from Fortaleza and Recife to Maranhão where highway and railway cross the Parnaíba river. Sobral seems to have had a relative greater importance in the past, when its traditional wholesale trade was more active. But the city always takes advantage of its position in a contact point among different areas: mountainous, "sertanejas" and coastal, of the Northwestern Ceará.

4.4 "Sertanejos" central places are Caruaru, Crato-Juazeiro and Patos. They did not grow in population as much as the former ones did between 1960 and 1964. They are centers of trade and services for the regions located in their surroundings and for farther stretches, respectively from Pernambuco, Ceará and Paraíba. A relatively good position in relation to the cultural status certainly indicates its activity as a place of affluence for students of medium education and of patients for hospitals and clinics.

4.5 Finally, cities of periphery position, in relation to the axis of greater dynamism. Parnaíba is marginal to the transport axis Fortaleza-Teresina or Recife-Teresina; the traditional transport on the Parnaíba river is stagnant.

Garanhuns is a secondary center in Pernambuco, located outside the main regional transport roads and is subordinated to Caruaru. Alagoinhas is also in margin being our of the great circulations that connect the Southeast to Recife and Fortaleza. Finally, Vitória de Santo Antão although on a main road is another marginal city out of a larger process of centrality, once it is located between Recife and Caruaru.

VII. Reflections on Planning. Conclusions. When one thinks of the enormous distance that separates the three Northeastern metropolises from the other cities and when one knows how much weakness these same metropolises have in terms of economic activity and power of regional direction, a conclusion is immediately reached. By being relatively much more developed, these centers are the ones that deserve a greater reinforcement in the concentration of economical activities and superior services, as the others would have less possibility of reach a polarization capable of irradiating effects of transformation of the nearby regions. The Northeastern industrialization under the influence of fiscal incentives of laws 34/18 shows in the first place the extension of the vast metropolitan area around Recife. Concentration of secondary activities also appears in Salvador and less in Fortaleza.

Experience has been showing the difficulties of regional development whilst this latter depends upon the establishment of big factories with intensive application of capital, and which many times do not even make use of the regional raw materials. These industrial undertakings represent, in their greater part, investments by Southeastern and foreign capitalists or enterprises. However the necessity of creating a market of regional consumption, by modifications in the agrarian world and in the field of medium and small cities, must not contradict with the process of metropolitan concentrations. Some modifications already verified in agricultural regions, reflect the performance of great cities by its market of consumption or by its governmental banking institutions and entrepreneurs.

The state capitals evidenced in the last years the effort of state ·planning, which strengthens the proper capitals by industrial attraction; modernization and strengthening of public administration; establishments of more up to date urban infra-structure; extended notion of high education, etc. The process of course indicates possibilities of some positiva results in the sense of improvement in organization of the Northeastern urban framework.

These cities can take advantage of one or other special condition to expand some types of industry. For instance, the abundance of seaweed on the coast of Rio Grande do Norte justifies the setting up of big seaweed (alga) factory in Natal. The improvement of conditions of these capitals as centers to render services, between which those connected to the state and municipal administration, so as the ones that represent federal power, also represented as an important process in the regional development and diffusion of innovations.

Meanwhile, regional conditions change with the actual growth and by planning influence. What would formerly be an inhibitor factor, the proximity of Recife and its competitive power, now became an advantage for João Pessoa and Campina Grande. These cities situated in one part of the Northeast that tends to form "core-area" of the Macro-Region, are options for industrial location as places of overflow from Recife. ln an optic of bipolarization of the State of Paraíba, two "industrial districts" were organized for both cities.

Experience shows that even the changes that occur in the agrarian world are induced as from the biggest centers. Projects of improvement of cattle-breeding in Rio Grande do Norte are organized, starting from Natal; the industrialization of tropical fruits in Ceará learns on Fortaleza, etc.

In the meantime, the smaller cities can serve as basis, as central places or as places of activities connected to the regional production, to the development of regional economies. In certain cases, by presenting special conditions, these places can develop to a high level called sector of activity, such as for example industries connected to the salt in Moçoró.

Regarding the cities of third echelon, one can distinguish those situated near the metropolis, such as Caruaru from Recife, Feira de Santaria from Salvador, capable to go through processes of satellite; or other cities that are in the Interior of regions of specialized economy, such as the mentioned Moçoró or Ilhéus-Itabuna, in the cocoa region. One can also identify axis, such as from João Pessoa to Floriano, which will be continued through ''Transamazônica''.

The planning must simultaneously attend the so distinct problems such as to guarantee improvement in life conditions of a population that grew so much in Vitória da Conquista from 1940 to 1964, at the cost of rural evacuation, or such as, of stimulating agrarian projects that get big results from the present potentials.

It is in thls context, where arises the question of complementation of processes of polarization and modernization in agricultural sectors, that SUDENE's recent attitude was placed by turning its attention to what is called "dynamic centers" and "priority program areas". The Northeast have areas that enjoy conditions of specialization in certain agricultural products for export, participating of a national general process of regional division of work. It is the clear case of production of certain tropical fruits. On the other hand there are areas where bigger diversification of production is possible, to attend the necessities of its internal food consumption, easing the imports. And areas of colonization and population in the "Middle North" that give origin to displacement of production and population. This process of displacement of activities reflects much on the behavior of the cities. The outcome of the planning now depends on its role in the integration of the different processes.